As China installs its new leadership, many will be watching for hints of a new direction on civil society, says Paul French

And so we reach a momentous period in China. The 18th congress of the 82-million-member Chinese Communist party is happening mid-October. It will usher in a new generation of leaders to rule China for the next decade.

We know that Hu Jintao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and that many of the 25-member politburo and the 371-member central committee will also be replaced. Beyond that, we don’t know much. Personalities are rare in Chinese politics and don’t always fare well – the name Bo Xilai will not be mentioned at this congress – and often policy change is even more difficult to divine.

One possible policy change that many will look out for will concern the state of civil society in China, especially issues around NGOs. According to Prof Wang Ming of Beijing’s Tsinghua University there are now 449,000 legally registered civil society organisations in China. However, there may be as many as 3m unregistered groups – possibly registered as businesses to avoid bureaucracy or simply not bothering to register at all and staying under the radar.

While not registering means avoiding any interference from the government, unless or until they transgress party views on matters, it also means there is little to no oversight or auditing of these myriad groups. Given that during the Mao-era 30 years ago there was not one single non-party civil society group in China, that’s a veritable explosion.

The party may feel uneasy about these groups; it may from time to time repress them or shut them down and it seeks to control them through elaborate registration processes; but some sort of autonomy was a necessary prerequisite for China’s move in the post-Mao era to a form of semi-market economy.

Isabel Hilton, the founder of the bilingual website chinadialogue.net concerned with matters of environmentalism and sustainability says: “The government now recognises the need for civil society organisations and the contribution they can make to China’s modernisation, environmental protection and sustainable development.” However, she also notes that the party has been “slow to create the legal and regulatory conditions that would allow civil society to fulfil its potential”, adding: “At the root of this much-delayed institutionalisation lies mistrust.”

NGO growth

Foreign NGOs now number more than a thousand in China, according to the ministry of civil affairs China charity and donation information centre. These work in humanitarian aid, environmental and animal protection as well as gender and labour issues. According to the centre they have donated about $3.2bn to China since 1978, mostly into areas of education and research.

However, many areas remain sensitive for foreigners and foreign organisations. A contact who works in Sichuan province on issues of impoverished communities that comes very close to being involved in Tibetan issues refuses ever to speak on the record for fear of putting his organisation in jeopardy. Oxfam ran into problems when it became involved in migrant worker education issues, a subject Beijing is touchy about.

Still, international contact is part of the growth of a civil society in China, particularly as goods manufactured by Chinese workers end up in western homes. What many are hoping will change at this congress is that strict rules that came into effect in 2010 that limited international funding and heightened government interference in the day-to-day operations of many NGOs will be repealed.

There have been shafts of light. In 2011 some “civil society organisations” were given official endorsement in the southern province of Guangdong and are now overseen by the ministry of civil affairs.

The official recognition of the One Foundation, a private foundation set up by the movie star Jet Li, was the first time a private charity was allowed to register and raise funds from the public in China. Veterans of China’s NGO movement, such as Isobel Hilton, believe the ministry may have eased its stance following the rash of scandals in China’s public, government-sponsored foundations – the so-called Gongos – including the Chinese Red Cross, that have made citizens reluctant to donate and generally mistrustful of all.

Right now a proposed charity law is awaiting approval by the forthcoming congress and a first reading could be possible by as early as March 2013. The government’s 12th five year plan (2011-2015) states that there should be a larger role for civil society organisations.

So, among all the hoopla surrounding who will be the next leaders of China, take time to read the small print to see if the new rulers of the PRC commit to expanding civil society. In many ways their commitment or otherwise will be a litmus test for how they will run the country for the first few years of their tenure.

Paul French has been based in China for more than 20 years and is a partner in the research publisher Access Asia-Mintel.