There are some specific lessons from the past ten years that can provide focus for the decade to come, argues Sally Uren

In early April, the French sustainability consultancy, Ethicity held a conference on sustainable consumption, presenting a new report on the 10-year evolution in the country’s attitudes to sustainability.

For a sustainability non-profit which uses futures techniques as a key change tool, looking back isn’t something Forum for the Future does that much of; and this led me to my first insight: we should look back more often, as the past can often tell us as much about what to do differently as the future.

With that stunning revelation behind me, I then thought hard about the last 10 years.

Four changes in 10

For me, there have been four key changes in the sustainability landscape over the last 10 years. First, sustainability has mainstreamed as a key business issue in a significant number of businesses, evidenced by the number of sustainability reports, chief sustainability officers and the sheer proliferation of high profile sustainability initiatives, from the circular economy to Forum’s very own #theBIGshift (ok, maybe not as high profile as some, but no less important). That’s not to say sustainability has mainstreamed in an absolute sense, it hasn’t, but the rate of integration in the last 10 years has been pacey.

Second, entire sectors have embraced sustainability. Efforts to tackle sustainability began in the ‘dirty’ sectors of oil and gas, chemicals etc. These sectors have been making mostly incremental progress, whereas retail and IT in particular have whooshed past in the race to become sustainable. In the UK there has been, and continues to be, a rather marvellous race to the top for the crown of most sustainable retailer, particular in food retail. And the IT sector is now moving from focusing on its data centres to helping its customers, both B2B and B2C, make serious cuts to their carbon emissions.

Which leads to the third change: the extension of the boundaries of sustainability from direct impacts to the use-phase. There’s even some new talk of introducing Scope 4 of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol – emissions avoided.

My fourth and final change is the proliferation of effective collaborations between businesses, as the reality dawns that there are a number of sustainability issues that are (whisper it), pre-competitive. From the Consumer Goods Forum to the Sustainability Consortium to the Sustainable Apparel Coalition, there is an increasing number of clusters of leading businesses coming together to get cut through on some critical issues.

So, what has driven these changes? Three key drivers;

Running low on resources – due to demand exceeding supply, extreme weather events and social and political upheaval, access to basic commodities is no longer guaranteed. There have been multiple shocks in the supply of key commodities over the last 10 years, and this is set to continue.

The digital explosion – there are now QR codes on Kit-Kat bars, we can track our favourite goods as they criss-cross the globe and in many parts of the developing world more people have access to mobile phones than basic sanitation. The digital age is well and truly here, and is (rightly) driving a transparency revolution.

Failure of government – at both a national and international level, governments around the world have failed to act decisively on sustainability issues, from climate change to working conditions in manufacturing. Business has stepped, rightly (where else is change going to come from?) or wrongly (business has no electoral mandate) into this vacuum.

Three key drivers of change for the next 10 years

The three drivers above will continue to play out over the next 10 years, although I would frame them slightly differently.

Demand outstripping supply – yes, this is a story of resource scarcity, but one driven by multiple sub-drivers, with population growth, demographic change (not least an ageing population plus a burgeoning middle class) and climate change impacts among them. There is no doubt we are headed into a VUCA world – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.

The era of ultra-transparency – there really will be no place to hide. Not knowing what is happening at the end of a supply chain just won’t be good enough.

Changing economics – south-south trade will continue apace, undermining the historic position of power held by many businesses in the west. Producers, empowered by demand from the new economies will no longer be so ready to cave into the demands of western buyers. And we will see more reshoring; manufacturing coming much closer to home. As wages increase in the economies that were the recipients of manufacturing demand, again from the west, the economics of production will change. This is a trend certainly to be exacerbated by climate change impacts – a double whammy of increased labour costs and huge supply chain volatility.

So, what might this all mean for business? I see there being at least six responses:

1.    Supply chain restructure

Forget long, linear supply chains that straddle the globe like spaghetti, leaking economic, environmental and economic value with each transaction. Think instead of sustainable value networks, where consumers can be producers, value is added at each stage, and five principles underpin the configuration of what we would recognise as supply chains today; namely, connected citizens, empowered producers, sustainable market mechanisms, restorative approaches and resilient value chains (see Tea 2030 for more). Get ready for lots more vertical integration and distributed manufacturing. 3D printed pizzasare just the beginning!

2.    Business model disruption

Where there was Kodak, there is now Instagram. Where there was Blockbusters in the UK (retail outlets renting videos) there is now Netflix. Who’s next? One response might be to buy out the disruptor, as Avis has bought Zipcar and Google has bought Nest. But what if that isn’t an option? The most effective strategy in the light of the wave of disruption headed our way is to be clear on purpose. What is your business here to do? Kodak thought it was in the business of selling camera films, but it was really in the business of selling memories. Had it spotted this earlier, it might have capitalised on the fact that it was the first business to patent the digital camera. As it was, it was too worried about the possible cannibalisation of camera film sales. The rest, as they say, is history.

3.    Consumers will become citizens

Civil society will find its voice on the issues it cares about. As megatrends begin to impact ‘my world’, people will care about a broader range of environmental and social issues than they did previously. You only need to consider changes in attitudes to climate change in the UK post the 2014 winter floods to see that it is already happening. Businesses will need to stop thinking about consumers as faceless entities loosely attached to the end of long, linear supply chains, but instead as engaged citizens who will want to know a huge amount more about where and how products are made, and what to do with them once they are at their end of use.

4.    Global will need to be local

The connected citizen will want to feel that they are doing their bit for their local community and local economy. Global brands will need to think hard about local activation. One size will certainly not fit all.

5.    The death of above the line advertising

Businesses will need to get used to the loss of brand custody. In a hyper-connected world where transparency is at an all-time high, the traditional ways of controlling the brand just won’t work. What peers, family and friends say about your brand will matter way more than column inches.

6.    The emergence of truly sustainable brands

We will see the death of green marketing and the obliteration of eco-brands. And good riddance, too. While businesses and brands have been side-lining substantive social and environmental issues in green marketing campaigns and worthy eco-brands, integration of these issues into the heart of the business model and the brand has been slowed down. The only way to prosper in a rapidly changing world is to integrate sustainability into the DNA of the business. 

Sally Uren is chief executive of Forum for the Future  

guest blog  Sally Uren