Felix von Geyer reports from Copenhagen on progress yesterday at the climate change talks
Just as the Copenhagen talks bob up and down unsure whether to float or sink, Yvo de Boer, the UNFCCC’s Executive Secretary, indicated that Tuesday night’s beginning of the Ministerial High-Level segment is when the serious work begins.
He is likely correct. A former Bush administration climate policy-framer simply uttered: "What a surprise", when told the G77 and China had walked out of the UN climate talks on monday.
Indeed, the group of developing countries told monday night’s press conference how the Danish Climate Change Minister Connie Hedegaard, acting as conference president had acted undemocratically through her informal consultations with only 48 ministers.
Hedegaard defended herself in Tuesday’s press conference saying she met with 28 G77 ministers
The mood was more upbeat at yesterday’s UNFCCC press conference.
The high-level segment would be a step-up from the past two days, said Yvo de Boer.
"We are at a very distinct and significant moment of the process", he explained and defended Hedegaard by saying: "This is the most transparent COP I have ever seen".
As to whether there could be an agreement between all groups, the UK public-school educated Dutchman stated: "You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink".
Sweden’s Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren subsequently claimed: "The situation is very serious".
And Carlgren noted that there are two countries in the world who matter most, "and we expect them to raise their ambition levels", he said of the US and China. Together these two comprise half of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Outgoing EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas sung the EU’s praises for its unswerving support of the Kyoto Protocol.
US Special Climate Envoy Todd Stern reminded people that cap and trade, the Clean Development Mechanism, and offsets were actually suggested by the US under Bill Clinton.
Stern walked a surprisingly middle path, stating he recognised US responsibilities and those of the other developed countries, who have historically created most of the current green house gas emissions.
Stern added that the US is not throwing the 1990 emissions baseline overboard.
He even professed respect for the EU and referred to "his friend", Li Junhua, China’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister.
Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen asked people to "dig deep into themselves to reconcile" at the opening session of the High-Level segment, quoting Winston Churchill that "courage is the power to speak up and the ability to sit down and listen".
So what are the problems?
Fishing around delegates of the G77 and China – the answers are myriad, the answers are none.
Africa seems to want the conference to adopt a 1.5 degrees Celsius as the level of commitment where global average temperatures should not ass.
Commitment to a legally binding agreement within 12 months is a further G77 and China precondition but one to which the US apparently will not agree.
As I write, UN Secretary General states that "We are on the cusp of history… the opening of a new era", and that "our future begins today".
By Saturday afternoon, we may all know more.